Updated on Saturday 06 June 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
US 109132 (+921) 1897380 (+24720) 491706 (+6704) 1296542 (+17095)
United Kingdom 40344 (+357) 284734 (+1655) 1228 (+9) 243162 (+1289)
Brazil 34021 (+0) 614941 (+0) 0 (-254963) 580920 (+254963)
Italy 33774 (+85) 234531 (+518) 163781 (+1886) 36976 (-1453)
France 29114 (+46) 190180 (+611) 70622 (+528) 90444 (+37)
Spain 27134 (+1) 240978 (+318) 150376 (+0) 63468 (+317)
Mexico 13170 (+625) 110026 (+4346) 77841 (+3083) 19015 (+638)
Belgium 9566 (+18) 58907 (+140) 16112 (+64) 33229 (+58)
Germany 8658 (+23) 184924 (+452) 168480 (+571) 7786 (-142)
Iran 8134 (+63) 167156 (+2886) 129741 (+2256) 29281 (+567)
Canada 7778 (+61) 95947 (+678) 53074 (+890) 35095 (-273)
India 6649 (+286) 236184 (+9471) 113233 (+4783) 116302 (+4402)
Netherlands 6024 (+15) 47358 (+210) 181 (+1) 41153 (+194)
Russia 5520 (+144) 449256 (+8718) 212237 (+8040) 231499 (+534)
Peru 5162 (+131) 187400 (+4202) 79214 (+2986) 103024 (+1085)
Turkey 4648 (+18) 168340 (+930) 133400 (+1622) 30292 (-710)
Sweden 4639 (+77) 42939 (+1056) 0 (+0) 38300 (+979)
China 4638 (+0) 84177 (+6) 79420 (+5) 119 (+1)
Ecuador 3534 (+48) 41575 (+609) 20568 (+549) 17473 (+12)
Switzerland 1921 (+0) 30936 (+23) 28600 (+0) 415 (+23)
Pakistan 1838 (+68) 89249 (+3985) 31198 (+1070) 56213 (+2847)
Indonesia 1770 (+49) 29521 (+703) 9443 (+551) 18308 (+103)
Ireland 1670 (+6) 25163 (+21) 22698 (+0) 795 (+15)
Portugal 1465 (+10) 33969 (+377) 20526 (+203) 11978 (+164)
Chile 1448 (+92) 122499 (+4207) 99358 (+3727) 21693 (+388)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 390237 (+3739) 6649911 (+101097) 2666772 (-198102)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 385721 ( +2459) 6663048 ( +90112) 2882713 ( +51096)
Sun 07 June 2020 388047 ( +2326) 6750686 ( +87638) 2931315 ( +48602)
Mon 08 June 2020 390244 ( +2197) 6835751 ( +85065) 2977369 ( +46054)
Tue 09 June 2020 392316 ( +2072) 6918161 ( +82410) 3020850 ( +43481)
Wed 10 June 2020 394267 ( +1952) 6997851 ( +79690) 3061761 ( +40911)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 4638 (+0) 84177 (+6) 79420 (+5)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84088 ( +0) 78407 ( +0)
Sun 07 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84088 ( +0) 78407 ( +0)
Mon 08 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84088 ( +0) 78407 ( +0)
Tue 09 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84088 ( +0) 78407 ( +0)
Wed 10 June 2020 4637 ( +0) 84089 ( +0) 78407 ( +0)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 27134 (+1) 240978 (+318) 150376 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 27610 ( +4) 237890 ( +100) 155563 ( +322)
Sun 07 June 2020 27614 ( +4) 237981 ( +91) 155864 ( +301)
Mon 08 June 2020 27617 ( +3) 238065 ( +83) 156145 ( +281)
Tue 09 June 2020 27620 ( +3) 238141 ( +76) 156408 ( +263)
Wed 10 June 2020 27623 ( +3) 238210 ( +69) 156654 ( +246)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 33774 (+85) 234531 (+518) 163781 (+1886)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 33400 ( +27) 232079 ( +106) 163711 ( +1236)
Sun 07 June 2020 33425 ( +24) 232176 ( +97) 164884 ( +1173)
Mon 08 June 2020 33447 ( +22) 232264 ( +88) 165997 ( +1113)
Tue 09 June 2020 33468 ( +20) 232344 ( +80) 167052 ( +1055)
Wed 10 June 2020 33486 ( +19) 232418 ( +73) 168052 ( +999)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 40344 (+357) 284734 (+1655) 1228 (+9)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 39544 ( +107) 275637 ( +620) 1559 ( +37)
Sun 07 June 2020 39643 ( +98) 276209 ( +572) 1597 ( +38)
Mon 08 June 2020 39733 ( +90) 276737 ( +528) 1636 ( +39)
Tue 09 June 2020 39816 ( +83) 277224 ( +487) 1675 ( +40)
Wed 10 June 2020 39892 ( +76) 277673 ( +449) 1716 ( +41)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 109132 (+921) 1897380 (+24720) 491706 (+6704)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 107483 ( +422) 1871016 ( +11755) 509076 ( +12115)
Sun 07 June 2020 107873 ( +389) 1882088 ( +11073) 521239 ( +12164)
Mon 08 June 2020 108231 ( +358) 1892504 ( +10416) 533445 ( +12206)
Tue 09 June 2020 108561 ( +330) 1902288 ( +9785) 545687 ( +12242)
Wed 10 June 2020 108864 ( +303) 1911469 ( +9181) 557958 ( +12271)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 29114 (+46) 190180 (+611) 70622 (+528)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 28386 ( +4) 183818 ( +24) 69634 ( +190)
Sun 07 June 2020 28389 ( +3) 183839 ( +21) 69809 ( +175)
Mon 08 June 2020 28392 ( +3) 183858 ( +19) 69971 ( +162)
Tue 09 June 2020 28394 ( +2) 183875 ( +17) 70121 ( +150)
Wed 10 June 2020 28396 ( +2) 183890 ( +15) 70259 ( +138)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 8658 (+23) 184924 (+452) 168480 (+571)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 8568 ( +9) 182902 ( +100) 165994 ( +183)
Sun 07 June 2020 8576 ( +8) 182993 ( +91) 166159 ( +165)
Mon 08 June 2020 8583 ( +7) 183076 ( +83) 166308 ( +149)
Tue 09 June 2020 8590 ( +7) 183152 ( +76) 166443 ( +134)
Wed 10 June 2020 8595 ( +6) 183222 ( +70) 166564 ( +121)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 6024 (+15) 47358 (+210) 181 (+1)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 5946 ( +3) 46651 ( +44) 242 ( +7)
Sun 07 June 2020 5949 ( +3) 46691 ( +40) 249 ( +7)
Mon 08 June 2020 5951 ( +3) 46728 ( +37) 256 ( +7)
Tue 09 June 2020 5953 ( +2) 46762 ( +34) 263 ( +7)
Wed 10 June 2020 5955 ( +2) 46793 ( +31) 270 ( +7)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 9566 (+18) 58907 (+140) 16112 (+64)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 9497 ( +7) 56851 ( +18) 15920 ( +25)
Sun 07 June 2020 9503 ( +6) 56868 ( +16) 15943 ( +23)
Mon 08 June 2020 9508 ( +5) 56883 ( +15) 15963 ( +21)
Tue 09 June 2020 9513 ( +5) 56896 ( +13) 15982 ( +19)
Wed 10 June 2020 9517 ( +4) 56908 ( +12) 15999 ( +17)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 4639 (+77) 42939 (+1056) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 4600 ( +28) 42676 ( +787) nan ( +nan)
Sun 07 June 2020 4626 ( +27) 43474 ( +798) nan ( +nan)
Mon 08 June 2020 4651 ( +25) 44281 ( +807) nan ( +nan)
Tue 09 June 2020 4674 ( +23) 45097 ( +815) nan ( +nan)
Wed 10 June 2020 4696 ( +22) 45918 ( +822) nan ( +nan)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 1137 (+20) 25410 (+362) 12410 (+183)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 1113 ( +5) 25480 ( +247) 12165 ( +139)
Sun 07 June 2020 1117 ( +5) 25715 ( +235) 12295 ( +130)
Mon 08 June 2020 1122 ( +4) 25938 ( +224) 12416 ( +121)
Tue 09 June 2020 1126 ( +4) 26150 ( +212) 12529 ( +113)
Wed 10 June 2020 1129 ( +4) 26351 ( +201) 12635 ( +106)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 1921 (+0) 30936 (+23) 28600 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 1913 ( +0) 30661 ( +1) 28334 ( +8)
Sun 07 June 2020 1913 ( +0) 30662 ( +1) 28341 ( +7)
Mon 08 June 2020 1913 ( +0) 30663 ( +1) 28347 ( +6)
Tue 09 June 2020 1913 ( +0) 30663 ( +1) 28352 ( +5)
Wed 10 June 2020 1913 ( +0) 30664 ( +1) 28357 ( +5)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 34021 (+0) 614941 (+0) 0 (-254963)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 34758 ( +801) 649930 ( +23834) 239266 ( +11104)
Sun 07 June 2020 35532 ( +774) 673786 ( +23857) 250910 ( +11644)
Mon 08 June 2020 36277 ( +745) 697603 ( +23816) 263121 ( +12211)
Tue 09 June 2020 36993 ( +716) 721317 ( +23714) 275926 ( +12805)
Wed 10 June 2020 37680 ( +687) 744868 ( +23551) 289354 ( +13428)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Fri 05 June 2020 8134 (+63) 167156 (+2886) 129741 (+2256)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sat 06 June 2020 7987 ( +29) 168396 ( +2614) 132141 ( +2348)
Sun 07 June 2020 8015 ( +28) 170994 ( +2598) 134540 ( +2399)
Mon 08 June 2020 8041 ( +26) 173570 ( +2576) 136990 ( +2450)
Tue 09 June 2020 8066 ( +25) 176118 ( +2549) 139490 ( +2500)
Wed 10 June 2020 8090 ( +24) 178635 ( +2516) 142039 ( +2549)

Comparison of different countries

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.